Hi, how are you? I hope you’re having fun and already enjoying the new year and looking forward to a great 2010.
As I speak it’s snowing here, and the garden is bathed in white. It brings to mind the saying ‘pure as the driven snow’ which seems to have been a metaphor used by Shakespeare in various plays.
Well, you may have read some of my prior posts on MPs and expenses. This is just a little update on the actual number asked/told to pay back some monies.
Currently there are 646 MPs in the UK parliament.
Back in May 2009 I asked what proportion you felt might be actively milking the system, or breaking the law.
My guess, though I didn’t let you know [my apologies] was that 60% would be cited or 10%.
Firstly why the disparate guesses?
Two reasons:
- Either the reality will come out, with a firmness that addresses all passive and active misuse [passive being 'going with the crowd'].
- Or, there will be a desire to minimise the impact and hit the major offenders hard to show where the line must be drawn.
These really just are a reflection of some easy categorisation:
- Actively broken the law/rules.
- Actively milked the system.
- Passively used the system [gone with the crowd believing it to be okay].
- Passively not used the system [didn't need to].
- Actively not used the system as others are [owing to own interpretation and personal values].
My guess was that either just the first of these categories or the first three would be cited [and my guesses were 10% and 60% for those categories [rule of thumb based on a few models that are a little too many to go into here].
Anyway the number of MPs asked/told to pay back expenses is, according to Daily Express sources in the House of Commons [UK parliament] over 400!
400 MPs told to hand back their dodgy expenses [article by Macer Hall on 04-Jan-2010].
Commons sources revealed that the total number of letters being sent out in an attempt to recoup taxpayers’ cash is more than double the amount previously thought.
The double is, I suspect, because it is difficult to differentiate between categories of active and passive milking of the system. Drawing the line between these two is about finding out intent and that will be very difficult when the consequence of admitting intent to milk a system are job and status loss, and possible legal action.
Anyway, my 60% guess is not far off. 646 x 0.6 = 387.6, so 388.
Just for those who like to check estimate error. 400 – 388 = 12, or about a 3% error – more than acceptable.
So it’s one example of the value of looking for patterns, the ability to see how they can predict behaviour.
Made my day on the pattern side of things…though deeply disappointing in terms of the policy making ability and values of MPs and the Parliamentary systems over which they have total control.
Let’s hope the clear out of this is now swift and relatively cheap to the taxpayer, who’s footing the bill for all this stuff and its resolution.
All the very best, and relax, it’s all just human behaviour!
David
PS: Late last year launched a companion site at www.redfilbert.com, more on this soon…
Tags: Culture, Group behaviour, Patterns, Value, Values